A yayin da jam’iyyu ke samar da ‘yan takara a jihohi 28 da za a gudanar da zaben gwamna a 2027, gwamnonin da wa’adinsu ya kare na kokarin samar da magadansu, yayin da kuma gwamnonin da ke wa’adi na farko na fafutukar ci gaba da rike kujerunsu, wanda suke fuskantar turjiya wajen wannan gwagwarmayan.
Babu zaben gwamna a jihohi bakwai a 2027. Sai dai kuma sauya sheka da karyewar kawance da tasirin ci gaba da zama a kan kujerar mulki sun kasance abubuwan da za su yi tasiri ga ‘yan Nijeriya a wannan lokacin.
An bayyana cewa a yanzu haka an samu turjiya wajen gwagwarmayar kula da gwamnati a fadin jihohi 18 na arewacin Nijeriya. Jam’iyyun siyasa sun fito da ‘yan takararsu. Manya masu tasiri sun zabi bangarorinsu. Yayin da a wasu jihohi, mutanen da suka kasance a abokan siyasa a baya yanzu sun zama abokan gaba.
Zaben gwamnoni a 2027 a arewacin Nijeriya za a fafata shi ne a fannoni da dama kasancewar a yanzu an samu rarabuwan kawukana da kabilanci da rashin tsaro da kuncin tattalin arziki da kuma tasirin siyasar uban gida.
Daga cikin jihohin arewa da fafatawar za ta fi zafi, akwai Kaduna, wanda aka samu ‘yan takara uku masu karfi da suka hada da Gwamna Uba Sani na jam’iyyar APC da Shehu Usman Bawa (wanda aka fi sani da Shehu ABG) na jam’iyyar PDP da kuma tsohon dan takarar gwamna, Isa Ashiru, na jam’iyyar ADC, masana harkokin siyasa na ganin wannan fafatawa za ta yi zafi sosai.
Sani ya shiga fafatawar ne da damarmaki guda biyu, kasancewarsa a matsayin gwamna da kuma zama dan takarar jam’iyya mai mulki ta APC da ta riga ta kafu. Amma Ashiru, wanda ya sha kaye a wurin Sani a shekarar 2023, manasa na ganin cewa hadin gwiwar siyasa ne mai karfi tare da tsohon Gwamna Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, mutum da ake dauka a matsayin ruhin siyasar adawa a Jihar Kaduna.
El-Rufai da Sani sun kasance abokan tafiya na kusa a baya, yanzu wannan alakar ta kau, kuma tana iya yin tasiri wajen kawo wa gwamnan cikas.
A Kano, Gwamna Abba Yusuf na fuskantar kalubale a harkokin siyasa na rayuwarsa. Bayan ya sauya sheka daga NNPP zuwa APC, zai isa zaben 2027 ba tare da kungiyarsa ta Kwankwasiyya da ta taimaka masa wajen samun nasarar a 2023 ba.
Uban gidansa na siyasa kuma tsohon gwamnan Jihar Kano, Dakta Musa Kwankwaso, ya bude kofa ga tsohon mataimakin gwamna Gwarzo, ana sa ran zai dauki tutar jam’iyyar NDC tare da samun goyon bayan Kwankwasiyya.
Yayin da PDP a bangaren Wike ta tsayar da Dakta Muhammad Bello Dalha, sannan akwai Sheikh Ibrahim Khalil daga jam’iyyar ADC. Duk da hayaniyar da ke ciki, masana harkokin siyasa suna ganin cewa har yanzu Yusuf yana da tasiri a jihar, sai dai idan kungiyar Kwankwaso ta yi cikakken aiki.
A Jihar Benuwai, Gwamna Reb. Fr. Hyacinth Alia, na jam’iyyar APC, wanda ya samu mulki a 2023, yana fuskantar adawa daga tsohon alkalin alkalai na tarayya, Cif Michael Aondoakaa na jam’iyyar PDP, wanda ke da karfin a matakin jihar da kuma goyon bayan daga tsohon gwamnan jihar, Samuel Ortom.
Tsohon dan majalisar wakilai, Herman Hembe na jam’iyyar ADC da babban lauya, Sebastian Hon, na jam’iyyar SDP sun kara karfin fafatawar. Amma fa, gwamna yana da tasiri sosai a siyasar jihar.
Fafatawar ta fi sauki a Jihar Taraba. Gwamna Agbu Kefas, bayan ya samu tikitin APC, yanzu yana fuskantar farazana daga Sanata Emmanuel Bwacha, abokin hamayyarsa na APC a 2023, wanda ya koma PDP kuma aka tabbatar da shi a matsayin dan takarar gwamna.
Sai dai rikicin cikin gida a cikin PDP na Taraba, ya rage karfin fafatawar adawa, yayin da INEC har yanzu ba ta tabbatar da dan takara ba.
A Adamawa, yin ritaya na Gwamna Fintiri ya bude damar kowa da kowa. APC na dogara ne kan tsohon shugaban hukumar PTDF, Ahmed Tijjani Galadima, yayin da PDP ta fitar da Dakta Maurice Bonolboki, wanda ya dawo cikin jam’iyyar cikin hanzari kwanaki kafin zaben fid da gwani bayan zargin an ware shi a APC.
Mafi yawan masu nazarin harkokin siyasa suna ganin tsohon mataimakin shugaban kasa, Abubakar Atiku, wanda ke neman shugaban kasa a jam’iyyar ADC, yana da tasiri sosai a Adamawa. Goyon bayansa ga dan takarar ADC na iya zama babban abin da zai juya sakamakon zaben.
Borno da Yobe sun ci gaba da kasancewa manyan ginshikan APC mafi tasiri a arewacin Nijeriya. Tun dawowar dimokuradiyya a 1999, babu jam’iyyar adawa da ta taba lashe zabe na kujerar gwamna a kowanne daga cikin jihohin.
Dukkan gwamnonin jihohin sun kammala wa’adinsu guda biyu, APC a Borno ta cimma matsaya kan dan takara na hadin gwiwa, Injiniya Mustapha Gubio, wanda gwamna mai barin gado Babagana Zulum yake goyan baya, yayin da APC na Yobe ta goyi bayan tsohon sakataren gwamnatin jihar, Baba Malam Wali, wanda shi ne magajin da Gwamna Mai Mala Buni ya fi so. Jam’iyyar adawa suna nan a duk jihohin biyu amma ba su da wata barazana mai tasiri.
A Jihar Filato, Gwamna Caleb Mutfwang, wanda ya yi abin mamaki ya bar PDP zuwa APC a farkon shekarar 2026, ya lashe zaben fid da gwani na APC da kuri’u sama da 233,000. Tare da cikakken goyon baya daga shugaban jam’iyyar APC, Farfesa Nentawe Yilwatda, Mutfwang zai shiga zaben ne a matsayin babban dan takara mai farin jini.
Babban mai kalubalensa, Kefas Wungak Ropshik na jam’iyyar PDP, yana samun taimakon jama’a, amma yana fuskantar babban kalubale na rikin jam’iyyarsa.
Gwamnan Zamfara, Dauda Lawal, sabon mamba ne a APC, ana hasashen zai ci gaba da rike kujerarsa. Mai kalubalantarsa mafi karfi shi ne Sanata Kabiru Marafa na jam’iyyar NDC, wani babban jigon a siyasa a jihar, wanda masana sun ce, yana iya rage tasirinsa kadan saboda barin APC.
A Nijar, Gwamna Muhammed Bago na da tarihin wajen samar da ababen more rayuwa da biyan albashin ma’aikata, wanda ya ba shi tasiri a jihar. A Sakkwato, Gwamna Ahmed Aliyu yana samun cikas saboda karuwar rashin tsaro da kuma kalubale mai inganci daga tsohon mataimakin gwamna, Manir Daniya na ADC.
A Jihar Kebbi, Gwamna Nasir Idris na fuskantar turjiya daga wurin tsohon ministan shari’a, Abubakar Malami na ADC, wani dan takara mai karfi.
A Katsina, Gwamna Dikko Radda zai fafata da Lado Danmarke na PDP, wanda ya kasance abokin hamayyarsa a 2023, a cikin wani zabe mai tsananin tasiri sosai.
Daga cikin jihohi 19 arewacin Nijeriya, ana has ashen cewa APC za ta iya rike akalla gwamnonin 12. Amma a Kaduna, Kano, Adamawa, Bauchi da Taraba, sakamakon har yanzu bai bayyana ba, kuma a nan ne za a samu makomar siyasar Nijeriya a arewa.
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