Tarihi na neman maimaita kansa dangane da yakin da Amurka da Isra’ila suke yi kan kasar Iran tun kimanin wata guda, inda masu fashin baki da masharhanta ke kokarin gane alkiblar yakin ta hanyar komawa baya a nazarci wasu abubuwa da suka faru a tarihi. Abubuwan kuwa sun kasance guda uku:
Mashigar ruwa ta Suez
Tun bayan da ‘yan kungiyar Houthi na Yemen suka kaddamar da hare-hare kan Isra’ila a ranar Juma’a – hari na farko tun bayan fara yakin Amurka da Isra’ila a kan Iran – wanda hakan ke nufin an samu karin wadanda suka shiga yakin.
Shigar Houthi cikin yakin ya sa fargaba ga duniya cewa tattalin arzikin kasar zai sake shiga wani yanayi kasancewar kungiyar tana da karfin kai hare-hare ga jiragen ruwa a Tekun Maliya musamman mashigar ruwa ta Suez Canal.
Duk da cewa kungiyar ba za ta iya toshe hanyar da kaso 30 na zirga-zirgar jiragen dakon mai ke bi ba, da kuma kaso 15 na sufurin kayayyaki ba amma kuma za ta iya samar da tsaiko ga samun damar shigewa ta mashigar Suez. Hakan na nufin, al’amura za su kara ta’azzara bisa la’akari da yadda Iran ta rufe mashigar Hormuz.
Wannan ne ya sa masana suka yi duba ga tarihin abin da ya faru da mashigar ruwan ta Suez Canal shekaru 70 da suka wuce wanda yake da kwatankwacin irin na abin da ke faruwa a yau.
Lokacin da shugaban Misra, Gamal Abdel Nasser ya mayar da mashigar ruwan ta Suez Canal mallakin kasarsa a 1956, ya karbe iko da daya daga cikin hanyoyin sufurin mai a duniya. Faransa da Birtaniya da Isra’ila sun yi yunkurin sake kwace iko da mashigar amma ba su yi nasara ba.
Ga shugaban Amurka, Donald Trump da firai ministan Isra’ila, Benjamin Netanyahu, tarihi ya yi nuni da wasu abubuwa masu alaka da hakan.
“Fiye da komai, al’amarin ya kawo karshen kasancewar Birtaniya kasar da ta fi kowacce karfi,” in ji dan jaridar BBC, Jeremy Bowen. “Ita ce take da iko da yankin Gabas ta Tsakiyar tun bayan yakin duniya na daya, kuma wannan ne mafarin kawo karshen ikon nata.”
Irin dabarun da Iran da ‘yan kungiyar Houth ke amfani da su na takaita amfani da hanyar da tattalin arzikin duniya ke gudana sun yi tunani dangane da irin matakin da Gamael Abdel Nasser ya dauka.
A lokacin da rundunar kasashen Faransa da Birtaniya suka isa bangaren arewacin mashigar ruwan Suez din, Nasser ya nutsar da jiragen ruwa, ya toshe mashigar ta hanyar katse Turai daga rijyoyinsu na mai da ke tekun fasha, kamar yadda Alfred McCoy wani masanin tarihi na Amurka ya sanar.
Shugaban Amurka na lokacin, Dwight D. Eisenhower wanda ya nuna damuwa da al’amarin wanda zai kara fadada yakin cacar baka da Tarayyar Turai – ya shiga cikin batun shi ma, sannan ya tilasta wa Birtaniya da Faransa su janye.
“Ya zuwa wannan lokacin….an sanya wa Birtaniya takunkumi a majalisar Dinkin Duniya, kudinta na gab da lalacewa, kimarta ta daula mai iko ta fara dusashewa sannan kasancewarta mai fada a ji a duniya na neman mutuwa,” in McCoy.
Sai dai kamar yadda Bowen ya ce akwai banbancin kamanceceniya tsakanin rufe mashigar Suez da ta Hormuz a yau.
“Ba ina kokarin alakanta karfin Amurka da na Birtaniya bayan yakin duniya na biyu ba. Sai dai abin da nake kokarin fitarwa shi ne dukkannin wasu kasashe masu karfi kan samu tagomashi kuma kan fadi. Sannan bisa la’akari da irin barazanar da Amurka ke fuskanta daga China – idan a nan gaba mutane suka fara tunanin faduwar Amurka to masu nazarin tarihi ka iya alakanta faduwar tata da yakin da ta shiga ba tare da tunanin abin da zai je ya zo ba.
Domin fahimtar illar hakan kuwa, akwai muhimmanci idan aka kalli karin darussan da tarihi ke nunawa a shekaru 70 da suka shude.
Matsalar mai a 1973
Daya daga cikin misalai na fili ya faru ne shekaru 20 da suka shude bayan rikicin rufe mashigar ruwan na Suez.
“A 1973 an yi yaki tsakanin Isra’ila da Misra da Syria wanda ake kira da yakin Yom Kippur. A lokacin Amurka ta bai wa Isra’ila makamai masu yawa,” in Bowen.
“Bayan nan kuma kasashen Larabawa sun mayar da martani ta hanyar saka takunkumin da ya janyo farashin mai ya yi tashin gwauron zabbi sannan kuma ya janyo karancin man a yammacin Turai.”
Ministan mai na Saudiyya na lokacin, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani ya fito fili ya yi magana a kan albarkatun kasa kamar mai a 1973, wanda hakan ya shafi kasuwar man ta duniya, Ya bayyana irin ikon da kasashen Larabawa ke da shi a kan mai da “makami na mai” wanda zai iya lalata tattalin arzikin duniya.
Takunkumin ya kwashe watanni biyar yana aiki amma kuma masana sun ce sakamakonsa ya dade yana taɓa duniya. Misali tashin farashi a Amurka da kasashen da ke dogaro ga mai a masana’antunsu – sannan kuma babban bankin Amurkar ya gaza shawo kan matsalar tsadar rayuwa.
Duk da cewa a yanzu haka dai za a iya cewa dogaro ga mai ba kamar na shekaru 50 da suka gabata ba ne kasancewar kasashe sun fadada hanyoyin samun makamashi, to amma faruwar al’amarin ka iya zama izina ga shugaban Amurka, Donald Trump.
Yakin Iran da Irak
Masana tarihi sun ce yakin Iran da Irai da ya mamaye shekarun 1980 ka iya zama darasi na kusa-kusa ta yadda za a fahimci yadda abokan Amurka ka iya kawo cikas ga tattalin arzikin duniya.
A lokacin yakin, Iran da Iraki duk sun yi kokarin rufe mashigar Hormuz a kokarinsu na jan hankalin manyan kasashen duniya ga rikicin.
Ya zuwa tsakiya zuwa karshen shekarun 1980, hare-hare sun yi kamari da ta sanya Kuwait ta nemi daukin kasashen duniya domin bai wa jiragenta damar wucewa ta mashigar ruwan. Amurka ta amince domin gudun ka da Rasha wadda babbar abokiyar gabarta ce a lokacin yakin cacar baka, ta mamaye ta.
An fara yi wa jiragen dakon mai rakiya a mashigar a wani shirin da ake kira da Operation Earnest Will, inda aka fara yi musu rakiyar a Yulin 1987 amma kuma hakan ya zamo wani abin kunya ga Amurka wanda ake yi wa kallon mai shiga tsakani – inda Iran ta kai hare-hare ga jiragen ruwan da ya kamata ta kare, a kan hanyarsu ta zuwa Kuwait.
Masana sun ce al’amarin ya yi nuni da irin karancin karfin Amurka wajen share nakiyoyin ruwa da Iran ta shimfida a mashigar ta Hormuz wani abu da ya ci gaba da sanya tsoro a zukatan masu jirage.
Tarihi ya fitar da darussan ga wadanda suke cikin yakin da ke faruwa a gabas ta Tsakiya kuma irin yadda suka tsaya suka fahimci darussan shi ne zai nuna irin alkibla da kuma lokacin da duniya za ta dauka wajen fuskantar wahalhalu.
