Farashin man fetur da takin zamani a duniya suna kan hanyar tashin goron zabi a cikin shekaru hudu, yayin da yakin Iran ke ci gaba da girgiza kasuwannin kayan masarufi, in ji Bankin Duniya a cikin sabuwar rahoton hasashen kasuwannin kayan masarufi.
Babban Bankin Duniya, a ranar Talata ya gargadin cewa farashin makamashi na iya tashi da kashi 24 cikin dari a wannan shekara, wanda zai zama mafi girma tun lokacin da rikicin ya barke da mamayar Rasha a Ukraine.
Ana hasashen cewa farashin kaya gaba daya zai karu da kashi 16 cikin dari a shekarar 2026, wanda mafi yawanci abin ya samo asali ne daga tsananin karuwa a farashin makamashi da taki, da matakan mafi girma da aka taba samu a wasu muhimman tashoshi.
A cewar rahoton, girgizan da ke fitowa daga rikicin Gabas ta Tsakiya ya fara yaduwa a cikin hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki na duniya, tare da manyan tasiri ga ci gaban tattalin arziki, samar da ayyuka da ci gaba, musamman a kasuwanni masu tasowa.
A tsakiyar wannan tashin hankali akwai mashigin Hormuz, wata muhimmin hanyar sufuri ta ruwa da ke daukar kusan kashi 35 cikin dari na kasuwancin mai na duniya ta teku. Hare-hare kan abubuwan more rayuwa na makamashi da cunkoson sufuri a wannan hanya sun haddasa abin da Babban Bankin Duniya ya bayyana a matsayin mafi girman girgizar samar da mai a tarihi, inda aka rage samar da mai a duniya da kusan ganga miliyan 10 a rana a lokaci mafi tsananin tashin hankali.
Ko da yake farashin ya ragu kadan daga mafi girman matakan da aka samu kwanan nan, farashin danyan mai ya kasance sama da kashi 50 cikin dari fiye da matakan da aka samu a farkon shekara a tsakiyar Afrilu.
Bankin ya yi hasashen cewa dayan mai zai kai matsakaicin na dala 86 a kowace ganga a shekarar 2026, daga dala 69 a shekarar 2025, idan aka dauka cewa manyan tangarda sun ragu a cikin watanni masu zuwa kuma hanyoyin ruwa suna dawowa daidaito a hankali.
Babban masanin tattalin arziki na Bankin Duniya, Indermit Gill, ya yi gargadin cewa rikicin na bayyana a matakai daban-daban, tare da tasiri mai girma.
“Yakin na shafar tattalin arzikin duniya a cikin hanyoyi daban-daban, farko ta hanyar hauhawar farashin makamashi, sannan hauhawar farashin abinci, da kuma hauhawar farashin kayayyakin abinci, wanda zai kara kudin ruwa na bashi kuma ya sanya bashi ya fi tsada.
“Mutanen da suka fi talauci wadanda ke kashe mafi yawan kudaden shigarsu kan abinci da man fetur, za su fi shiga matsala, kamar yadda kasashe masu tasowa ke fama da matsalolin bashi. Duk wannan tunatarwa ce game da koma-bayan da yakin ya haddasa “, in ji shi.
Ana sa ran farashin taki zai tashi da kashi 31 cikin dari a shekarar 2026, wanda hakan zai faruwa ne saboda tashin farashin urea da kashi 60 cikin dari. Ana hasashen wannan zai sa samun taki a ya kai mafi rauni tun daga shekarar 2022, yana matsa lamba ga ribar manoma kuma yana barazanar ga samar da amfanin gona.
Rahoton ya yi gargadin cewa idan rikicin ya yi tsawo na iya kara tsananta rashin abinci a duniya, inda Shirin samar da abinci na duniya ke kiyasta cewa mutane miliyan 45 za su shiga cikin yunwa mai tsanani idan matsin lamba na samar da abinci ya ci gaba.
Babban Bankin Duniya ya kara cewa tashin farashin kayan masarufi zai karfafa matsin lamba na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kuma ya raunana ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya.
Hawan farashin kayayyaki a kasuwannin da ke tasowa yanzu an kiyasta zai kai kashi 5.1 a cikin dari a shekarar 2026, daga kashi 4.7 a cikin dari. Ana sa ran ci gaban tattalin arziki a wadannan kasuwanni zai ragu zuwa kashi 3.6 a cikin dari, wani sauyi ne zuwa kasa daga hasashen da aka yi a baya.
Mataimakin babban masanin tattalin arziki na Bankin Duniya, Ayhan Kose, ya yi kira ga masu tsara manufofi da su yi taka tsantsan wajen mayar da martani ga rikicin da ke faruwa.
“Tashin hankali da ya biyo baya cikin shekara goma ya rage tsarin kudi da ake da shi don mayar da martani kan rikicin samar da makamashi na tarihi da ake ciki yanzu.
“Dole ne gwamnatoci su ki yin amfani da manyan matakan tallafin kudi marasa ma’ana wadanda za su iya lalata kasuwanni kuma su rage ajiyar kudi na gwamnati. Maimakon haka, su mayar da hankali kan tallafi cikin sauri da na dan lokaci wanda aka tsara musamman ga gidajen da suka fi rauni,” in ji shi.
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