Lokacin da rikicin da ya hada Amurka da Isra’ila da Iran ya barke a karshen watan Fabrairu, tasirinsa bai tsaya a Gabas ta Tsakiya kadai ba.
A yayin da rikicin ya kawo cikas ga jigilar kaya ta teku da kuma zirga-zirgar kasuwanci a duniya, farashin mai ya tashi sosai.
Wannan kuma ya janyo hauhawar farashin kaya a kasuwannin duniya, abin da ya girgiza tattalin arzikin kasashe da dama.
A irin wannan yanayi na rashin tabbas, wasu masu zuba jari sun guji sanya kudi a kasuwanni masu hadari, musamman a kasashe masu tasowa.
Maimakon haka, sun koma saka kudinsu a Dalar Amurka, wadda ake dauka a matsayin amintaccen mafakar kudi a lokutan rikici.
Wannan faduwa da tashin darajar kudi ya yi tasiri kai tsaye ga darajar kudaden kasashe da dama.
Wasu kudaden kasashe sun yi rauni sosai, wasu kuma sun kasance cikin sauyin da ba tabbas, yayin da wasu kadan suka samu karin karfi.
Masanin tattalin arziki dan Brazil André Perfeito, wanda ke jagorantar kamfanin ba da shawara APCE, ya ce hauhawar farashin mai “yana shafar kowa, amma faduwa da tashin darajar kudi na iya kara tsananta ko kuma rage wannan tasiri.”
Wadanda abin ya fi shafa sosai
Kasashen da ke shigo da makamashi da yawa, musamman mai, suna daga cikin wadanda kudadensu suka fi fuskantar matsin lamba.
Cikin wadannan kasashe akwai Indiya, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand da Masar.
Dukkansu sun fara fuskantar karin matsin tattalin arziki sakamakon tashin farashin mai da kuma karancin samun kudin waje.
Yayin da masu zuba jari ke mayar da kudadensu zuwa Dalar Amurka, bukatar wasu kudaden kasashe ta ragu.
Wannan ya sa darajarsu ta fadi. Idan darajar kudi yana faduwa da tashi, biyan bashi da aka karba da Dalar Amurka ma yana kara tsada.
Haka kuma, mai da sauran kayayyaki da ake shigo da su daga waje wadanda sau da yawa ana farashinsu da Dalar Amurka ne musamman saboda tasirin rikice-rikice da ke hana zirga-zirga a mashigar Hormuz suna kara tsada idan darajar kudin kasa ta ragu.
Wannan na nufin abubuwan da ake shigo da su kamar makamashi, robobi da takin zamani suna yin tsada.
Daga nan kuma, farashin abinci da kayayyakin yau da kullum a kasuwanni yana karuwa.
A Indiya, Rupee ya ragu da kusan kashi 5 cikin 100 a kan Dalar Amurka tun bayan fara rikicin, inda ya kai matakin da bai taba kaiwa ba a lokuta da dama yayin da farashin mai ke tashi.
Ko da kafin rikicin, kudin Indiya ya riga ya fara yin rauni, amma wannan ya kara tsananta yanayin.
Wasu bankunan kasashe sun mayar da martani ta hanyar kara yawan riba da kuma sayar da Dalar Amurka da aka ajiye domin tallafa wa kudin kasarsu.
Bankin Indonesia ya yi amfani da duka matakan da suka hada da sayar da daloli a kai-a kai tare da sayen Rupiah domin kara bukata da daga darajarsa.
Idan aka kara yawan ribar banki, mutane suna samun riba mai yawa a ajiyarsu. Amma a gefe guda, hakan yana nufin biyan basussuka kamar lamunin gida da sauran rance zai kara tsada.
Hawa da saukar darajar kudade
Wasu kudaden kasashe kuwa sun fi fama da karyewar darajar kudi sosai, suna hawa da sauka cikin sauri.
Kasashen da abin ya fi shafa sun hada da Afrika ta Kudu da Colombia da Chile da Medico.
Yawanci irin wadannan kudade suna faduwa da tashi idan masu zuba jari suka koma amfani da Dalar Amurka, amma suna iya farfadowa idan farashin kayayyakin masarufi kamar mai ya tashi ko kuma masu zuba jari suka sake nuna sha’awa.
Kasashe masu fitar da makamashi irin su Brazil da Malaysia sun samu dan anfani daga tashin farashin mai, wanda ya kara kudaden shiga da sha’awar masu zuba jari.
Bankuna kamar Goldman Sachs da Bank of America sun bayyana cewa ana yawan sayen takardun bashin gwamnati da hannayen jari na Brazil.
Sai dai masana sun ce hauhawar farashin mai na iya kara tashin farashi a Brazil, wanda zai iya hana rage kudin ruwa da kuma shafar shigowar jari.
Haka kuma Brazil na shigo da man fetur da dizal daga waje, abin da ke kara tsadar mai a cikin kasar.
Masana sun ce rashin tabbas game da zaben shugaban kasa na watan Oktoba a Brazil na iya kara raunana kudin kasar saboda masu zuba jari na nuna tsoro.
A gefe guda kuma, wasu kudaden kasashe ba sa faduwa ko tashi.
Kudin China ya ci gaba da kasancewa a yadda yake saboda gwamnati na sa ido sosai kan shigar da fitar kudade tare da kula da darajar Yuan.
Haka kuma kudin Russia, wato Rouble, ya kara karfi saboda kudaden shiga daga makamashi da kuma tsauraran dokokin gwamnati kan zirga-zirgar kudade, ciki har da tilasta masu fitar da kaya mayar da kudaden waje zuwa Rouble.
Me ya ke faruwa da kasashen masu arziki?
A farkon rikicin, darajar kudaden kasashe masu arziki sun kara karfi yayin da masu zuba jari suka nemi mafaka.
Dalar Amurka da kudin Switzerland sun yi karfi kafin daga baya su dawo daidai kamar yadda suke kafin yakin.
Haka kuma darajar kudin Norway ya amfana da tashin farashin danyen mai.
Sai dai kudin Japan, wato Yen, ya karye saboda kasar na dogaro sosai da makamashin da take shigowa da shi daga waje.
Darajar kudaden Canada da Australia ma sun samu karfi saboda tashin farashin kayayyakin da kasashensu ke fitarwa kamar mai, gas da karafa.
A nahiyar Turai kuwa, Euro da Fam na Birtaniya sun fuskanci faduwa da tashin darajar kudaden saboda tsadar makamashi da hauhawar farashi da kuma raguwar ci gaban tattalin arziki.
Me zai faru a gaba?
Masana tattalin arziki sun ce duk da cewa hare-haren farko kan Iran sun sa masu zuba jari komawa amfani da dogaro da Dalar Amurka, daga baya Dalar ta fara karyewa abin da zai iya amfanar kasashe masu tasowa.
Sun bayyana cewa idan Dalar Amurka ta karye, hakan na bai wa kasashe masu tasowa damar rage kudin ruwa da rage tsoron masu zuba jari, tare da saukaka matsin tattalin arziki.
Haka kuma yawancin bashin kasashen masu tasowa ana karbarsa ne da Dala, sannan kayayyaki kamar mai ana sayar da su da Dala, saboda haka karyewar Dala na iya taimaka musu.
Sai dai asusun bayar da lamuni IMF ya gargadi cewa rikicin Iran na iya jefa tattalin arzikin duniya cikin matsala mai cike da hauhawar farashi da raunin ci gaba.
Asusun ya ce idan farashin mai ya ci gaba da tsada, ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya na iya sauka zuwa kashi 2.5, yayin da hauhawar farashi zai kai kashi 5.4.
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