Gamayyar tsaro da Amurka ke jagoranta a yankin Gulf ta shafe tsawon gomman shekaru tana tasiri, amma yakin da Amurka da Isra’ila ke yi da Iran zai iya canza hakan.
A lokacin yakin, hare-haren makami mai linzami da Iran ta rika kai wa kasashen yankin Gulf ya tilasta wa kasashen kokarin amfani da na’urar kare harin sararin samaniya wajen kare kansu, wanda a lokuta da dama ba a yin nasarar karewa. Haka nan kuma kasashen sun rika nazari kan martanin da Washington ke mayar wa a duk lokacin da aka kai irin wadannan hare-hare bayan sun samu kansu a cikin yakin da wasu kwararru a yankin ke cewa an kaddamar da shi ba tare da an tuntube su ba.
Ko wannan rikicin ya fallasa gazawar tanadin tsaro a tsakanin Washinton da kasashen yankin Gulf?
Shin yakin zai iya zama silar da kasashen yankin Gulf za su rage dogaro ga Amurka wajen tabbatar da tsaronsu, ko kuwa karuwa dogaron zai yi?
Gamayyar gomman shekaru
Dukkan kasashen da ke cikin hadakar yankin Gulf sun kulla yarjejeniyar tsaro da Washington, lamarin da ya sa ake daukar Saudiyya da Katar da Bahrain da kuma Kuwait a matsayin kawayen da ba su cikin kawancen tsaro na NATO, ak kuma kallon Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa a matsayin babbar kawa.
Amurka ta fara mayar da hankali ga yankin Gulf ne bayan yakin duniya na biyu, yayin da ta maye gurbin Birtaniya a matsayin kasa mai karfin fada a ji, a yankin. Hadakar tsaron da Amurka ke jagoranta a yankin Gulf ta kafu ne a kan abubuwa biyu: muhimmancin yankin da dimbin albarkatun mai da yake da shi da kuma kokarin jan birki ga tasirin tarayyar Sobiet.
Ko a shekaru biyu kafin kawo karshen yakin, shugaban Amurka na wancan lokacin, Franklin Roosebelt ya yi hasashen muhimmancin da yankin Gulf mai arzikin mai ke da shi ga kasar shi a nan gaba, inda a 1943 ya ayyana cewa ”bayar da kariya ga Saudiyya abu ne mai muhimmanci tamkar bayar da tsaro ga Amurka,” yayin da ya ke jaddada amfanin bai wa Saudiyya tallafin bunkasar tattalinarziki da kuma bunkasa alaka tsakanin ta da Washington.
A 1945, shugaba Roosebelt ya gana da sarki Abdulaziz Al Saud a Masar. Duk da dai bayanan hukumomi ba su ambaci mai a cikin tattaunawar da suka yi ba, ana daukar taron a matsayin wanda ya share fagen alaka ”ta musamman” da ke tsakanin kasshen biyu.
Dr. Jeffrey F. Gresh, wani kwararre kan harkar diflomasiyyar kasa da kasa kuma mawallafin littafin “Gulf Security and the US Military: Regime Surbibal and the Politics of Basing,” ya shaida wa sashin Larabci na BBC cewa a lokacin da aka kawo karshen yakin duniya na biyu, ”Amurka ta mallaki daya daga cikin sansanin soji mafi girma a duniya.” Ya kara da cewa a lokacin Amurka ta karkata akalar tsare-tsaren sojinta zuwa yankin Gulf.
A 1949, bayan sansanin sojin saman ta da ke Jamus, sansanin sojin Amurka na Dhahran ya zamo mafi yawan hada-hada da kasar ke da shi a kasashen waje, kuma yana da tasiri sosai ga dukkan ayyukan sojin Amurka a fadin duniya.
Gresh ya yi nuni da cewa Amurka ta yi alkawarin tallafin soji da na bunkasar tattalin arziki ga Saudiyya, lamarin da ya sa ta samu damar kafa sansanin sojinta. Haka kuma Amurka ta amince da bukatar sayar wa Saudiyya da makamai don gudun kada rashin sayar mata ya tilastawa kasar saye a hannun tarayyar Sobiet.
Ya ce ”Wannan ya sa har yanzu Amurka ke da sansanin soji a Saudiyya duk da cewa an yi gomman shekaru da kawo karshen yakin, da kuma matsin lambar cikin gida da mahukunta ke fuskanta saboda yadda Amurka ke goyon bayan Isra’ila.
Daga karshen yakin duniya na biyu har zuwa 1980 akwai kyakkyawar alakar harkokin soji a tsakanin Amurka da sauran kasashen yankin Gulf, wadda ta hada da bayar da horon soji da kafa kananan cibiyoyi da sansanin soji a kasashen.
A 1971 Washington ta kulla yarjejeniya da Bahrain, lamarin da ya bai wa Amurka damar girke dakarunta a tsohon sansanin sojin ruwan Birtaniya da ke Juffair.
Tsakanin 1960 da 1970, shugaban Amurka Richard Nidon ya bullo da wani tsari na karfafa alaka tsakanin Iran da Saudiyya, kasashen da ya kira ”jiga-jigan” tasirin tsaron Washington a yankin.
Alakar Amurka da yankin Gulf ta yi tsami a lokacin yakin 1973, yayin da kungiyar kasashen Larabawa masu arzikin mai (OAPEC) ta kakaba takunkumi kan kasashen da ke goyon bayan Isra’ila a yakin, musamman Amurka.
A 1979, juyin juya halin Iran ya kawo karshen alakar Amurka da kasar bayan hambarar da gwamnatin aminin Washington Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlabi. Daga nan kuma tarayyar Sobiet ta afkawa Afghanistan.
Wadannan matakai sun sanya Amurka ta damu sosai kan yadda tarayyar Sobiet ta ci gaba da fadada ikon ta a yankin Gulf.
A 1980, shugaban Amurka na wancan lokacin Jimmy Carter ya ayyana cewa ”duk wani yunkuri daga wata kasa domin mamaye yankin zai fuskanci turjiya daga Amurka, kuma masu sharhi kan harkoki a Washington suna ganin cewa wannan tsari ne aka ci gaba da aiwatarwa a karkashin shugaba Ronald Reagan da kuma George H.W Bush.
A lokacin yakin Iran da Irak a 1981 aka kafa kungiyar hadin kan yankin Gulf, ”Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)” domin tabbatar da tsaro a tsakanin kasashen Saudiyya da Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa da Katar da Bahrain da Kuwait da kuma Oman.
Zaman dar-dar ya karu a yankin bayan da Irak ta kutsa Kuwait a 1990.
Kutsen da Amurka ta yi wa Irak a 2003 da hambarar da Saddam Hussein ya bude wani sabon babi na nazari kan rawar da Washington ke takawa kan tsaron yankin.
Kasashen yankin Gulf sun ci gaba da dogaro kan Amurka wajen tabbatar da tsaronsu, ita kuma Washington ta ci gaba da zama a yankin, tana fadada sansanonin ta a Bahrain da Katar da Kuwait da kuma Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa.
Hambarar da Saddam Hussein, wanda ya zamo babban abokin hamayyar Iran ya bai wa Tehran damar fadada ikonta a yankin da kuma jefa damuwa a tsakanin kasashen yankin da suka kafa kungiyar kawance.
A hankali abubuwa sun rika faruwa da ke jefa shakku a tsakanin kasashen yankin Gulf kan ko za su ci gaba da dogaro ga Washington a kan tsaronsu.
A misali, an shiga rudani kan martanin da aka yi kan harin da kungiyar Houthi mai samun goyon bayan Iran ta kai kan matatun man Saudiyya a 2019. Dr. Sultan Al-Amer ya ce Washington “ta aike da na’urar kare harin sararin samaniya zuwa Saudiyya, a madadin kai wa Iran hari a matsayin martani…. Wannan lamari ya sa masarautar Saudiyya ta gani karara cewa ba za ta iya dogara ga Amurka ba kan tabbatar da tsaro daga hare-haren Iran, kuma wannan ya sanya Saudiyya ta kaddamar da sabon tsari na sasanci da Beijing domin fadada alakar tsaro a yankin, baya ga dadaddiyar alaka a tsakaninta da Amurka.”
Ita ma Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa ta shiga rudani bayan Amurka ta ki daukar wani mataki kan harin da Houthi ta kai kan filin jirgin sama na birnin Abu Dhabi a 2022. Harin Iran a kan Katar da kuma Isra’ila a 2025, sun tayar da sabuwar muhawara kan alakarsu da Amurka.
Sa’oi kafin fara yakin da Isra’ila da Amurka suka kaddamar kan Iran a ranar 28 ga watan Faburairu, Ministan harkokin wajen Oman Badr al-Busadi wanda kasasa ke shiga tsakani don sasanta Amurka da Iran ya bayyana cewa an yi nisa kuma ana samun nasarar tattaunawar.
Kasashen kawancen yankin Gulf sun samu kansu a cikin rikicin, kuma alakarsu da Iran ta tabarbare duk da shekarun da aka shafe ana kokarin dinke barakar.
Al-Busaidi ya zargi Washington da ”fadawa cikin yanayin lalacewar huddar diflomasiyya” kuma ya bayyana yakin a matsayin ”annoba.”
Sauya dabaru da fadada alaka da wasu kasashe na daban
A shekarun baya-bayan nan, kasashen yankin Gulf sun fara fadada tunanin su kan yadda za su samar da karin hanyoyin bunkasa tattalin arzikin su da kuma shiga alakar inganta fasahar kere-kere da wasu kasashe da suka hada da China da Indiya da Rasha da Faransa da kuma Jamus, kuma wannan mataki ya fara karkata zuwa fannin tsaro.
Ana cikin yakin da Isra’ila da Amurka ke yi da Iran, Saudiyya da Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa da kuma Katar suka sanya hannu kan wata yarjejeniya da Ukraine, lokacin wata ziyara da shugaba Bolodymyr Zelensky’ ya kai yankin Gulf a karshen watan Maris. A karkashin yarjejeniyar, Kyib za ta sayar wa kasashen kayan yaki, ciki har da jiragen sama marasa matuki.
A baya ma shugaba Zelensky ya sanar da cewa kasar shi tana bayar da tallafin kayan yaki ga kasashen Saudiyya da Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa da Kuwait da kuma Jordan, domin su samu kariya daga hare-haren Iran.
Dr. Al-Amer ya yarda cewa kasashen yankin Gulf za su ci gaba da neman kulla hadakar soji da wasu kasashen na daban. Ya ce ”bana zaton ynukurin zai zamo na neman raba gari da Amurka, amma kasashen za su dage wajen ci gaba da alaka mai kyau da Washington yayin da a lokaci guda suke neman kulla sabon kawance da kasashe domin inganta tsaro.
Wani dalili da zai sa kasashen ba za su raba gari da Amurka ba shi ne hare-haren da Iran ke kai masu, wanda ya kara irin tsoron da suke da shi da kuma neman kariya daga Amurka. Dr. Gresh ya ce “Mafi yawan kasashen kawancen Gulf na ganin zaman Amurka a yankin a matsayin wani abu mai muhimmanci da zai iya hana Iran ci gaba da yi masu barazana.
Wani dalilin kuma shi ne kasashen basu da tabbacin samun kariya ta hakika daga wasu kasashe na daban da Amurka.
Dr. Craig ya jajirce cewa kasashen China da Rasha duk za su iya zama abokan huddar kasuwanci da siyasa nagari gare su, amma ba za su iya kai masu daukin da suke bukata ba a fannin karfin soji.
Mun Ciro Daga BBC Hausa
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